RESEARCH OF RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL IN WATERS ADJOINING BRIDGE BASED ON BAYESIAN NETWORK

摘要

This study analyzes the applicability of Bayesian Network in risk assessment. A model about risk assessment in waters adjoining bridge has been developed based on Bayesian Network. Navigational risk factors cause accidents of Ship-bridge collisions which are determined by statistical analyzing of existing accidents data combined with the expertise and are modeled by Bayesian Network. Taking Sutong Bridge as an example, the study analyzes the risk status there and gets the probability of Ship-bridge collisions by calculation. The result indicates that the main causes of Ship-bridge collisions are Negligence, disoperation and bad meteorological condition.