Exploring the Effectiveness of Bus Rapid Transit A Prototype Agent-Based Model of Commuting Behavior

摘要

The introduction of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), typically involving the use of exclusivebus lanes and related bus priority measures, is increasingly advocated as a flexible andcost-effective way of improving the attractiveness of public transit in congested urbanareas by reducing travel times and variability. These schemes typically involve thereallocation of road space for exclusive use by buses, presenting commuters withpotentially competing incentives: buses on BRT routes can run faster and moreefficiently than buses running in general traffic, potentially attracting commuters topublic transit and reducing congestion through modal shift from cars. However, asecondary impact may also exist; remaining car users may be presented with lesscongested road space, improving their journey times and simultaneously acting as anincentive for some bus-users to revert to the car. To investigate the potential for theseprimary and secondary impacts, we develop a prototype agent-based model toinvestigate the nature of these interactions and how they play out into system-widepatterns of modal share and travel times. The model allows us to test the effects ofmultiple assumptions about the behaviors of individual agents as they respond todifferent incentives introduced by BRT policy changes, such as the implementation ofexclusive bus lanes, increased bus frequency, pre-boarding ticket machines andexpress stops, separately and together. We find that, under our assumptions, thesepolicies can result in significant improvements in terms of individual journey times,modal shift, and length of rush hour. We see that the addition of an exclusive bus laneresults in significant improvements for both car users and bus riders. Informed withappropriate empirical data relating to the behavior of individual agents, the geographyand the specific policy interventions, the model has the potential to aid policy-makersin examining the effectiveness of different BRT schemes, applied to broaderenvironments.