THE IMPACTS OF THE INCREASING COSTS OF ELECTRICITY TARIFFS ON THE ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATION WITH PV SYSTEMS IN BRAZIL

摘要

Despite the considerable increase of grid-connected photovoltaic systems' (GCPVS) applications in Brazil, since the publication, in 2012, of Normative Resolution number 482, that regulates the grid-connection of micro and mini distributed generation systems, economic issues are still the main obstacle to the faster dissemination of GCPVS installations in the country. In this context the present paper analyses the discounted payback period of GCPVS installed in the whole country, considering the variation of the electricity tariffs applied by the Brazilian utilities and the installation's investment costs. The study is applied to residential and commercial small-scale PV systems, connected to low voltage grids, and is accomplished with the aid of a software developed by the authors. The analysis considers the reality of the 27 Brazilian states, including Distrito Federal, the country's capital, selecting the main utility of each state. The results indicate a strong dependence of the system's economic feasibility on the electricity tariffs applied and on the investment costs, varying from an unfeasible situation to a payback period of less than 5 years, which is very positive considering the present scenario. The results also make possible a construction of a GCPVS economic feasibility Brazilian map and a three-dimensional graph, indicating the states and the conditions that present the best economic scenarios for the installation of GCPVS.