OPTIMIZED POWER DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF SAUDI ARABIA CONSIDERING SUSTAINABILITY AND OPPORTUNITY LOSS OF SUBSIDIZED OIL

摘要

This paper describes the optimized power development including PV and CSP in Saudi Arabia in terms of LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) as well as its potential influence to the GDP of the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia is facing a rapid increase in power demand due to increasing population and the economic growth. Domestic consumption of oil could reach the recent production level in less than 20 years at this rate. As the potential of increase in oil production is limited, substitution of oil by other sources of energy as well as energy conservation is critical. To cope with this problem, a simulation model which consists of two modules is proposed in this article in order to evaluate the proposed target values by the government and to suggest the optimized power supply plan. The first module is Electricity Simulation Module that aims LCOE minimization of the power system, potentially consisting of PV, CSP, nuclear and thermal power. The second module is the Macroeconomic Module calculating the GDP for each scenario in power development. The estimated future I/O table for Saudi Arabia has been extended to include PV, CSP and nuclear industrial sectors. The influence to the GDP has been compared between the two scenarios.