DEVELOPMENT OF RELIABILITY MODEL FOR RESIDENTIAL SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY SYSTEMS USING MCMC

摘要

The present work develops a probabilistic model of replacement time for residential PV systems, whichenables us to predict a range of replacement probability at arbitrary time with the degree of uncertainty, based on anactual dataset used for the parameter estimation. For estimating the model parameters, the dataset of replacement recordsprovided by Japanese PV owners group, PV-Net, is used, which is unique and rich to be analyzed. In this paper, theprobabilistic model is specified through Bayesian approach, which estimates the marginal posteriors of multipleparameters on replacement density and reliability distributions. To investigate the model’s applicability, warranty cost fora hypothetical manufacturer is calculated.