The computational model on damage probability of shipborne shrapnel based on Monte Carlo method

摘要

Shipborne shrapnel is an indispensably suppressive weapon during firing on shore. In order to make proper command decision, it is necessary for commander of warship to evaluate the damage probability of shipborne shrapnel. In the first place, the simulation and calculation process of damage probability based on monte carlo method is set up. Then the way of confirming simulation times and making damage judgement is put forward respectively. Finally, the influence of firing distance on damage probability is analyzed. Because monte carlo method can well resolve the overlapping problem of damage areas among different bomblets, it will be widely used to calculate damage probability of shipborne shrapnel.