Exploratory Policy Design

摘要

This paper is the first of two that focus on the policy design phase of system dynamics modeling, when efforts are made to change a model in realistic ways to alleviate problematic behavior. The literature contains more examples of policy parameter analysis than structural modification, perhaps because the former can provide useful policy insights at a cost that is considerably lower than the latter. Building meaningful policy structure can be difficult and time-consuming. One reason may be the lack of a framework to guide the policy design process. Good examples of structural modification rarely reveal the method behind the masterpiece; indeed, the method often appears to be more craft than science. This paper proposes a framework to facilitate model-based policy design and thereby enhance the practice. A public health policy model is used to illustrate the first part of the framework: exploratory policy design. We conclude with a brief preview of the second part-implementation policy design-that is the subject of a companion paper.