Using a Hybrid Cognitive-System Dynamics Model to Anticipate the Influence of Events and Actions on Human Behaviors

摘要

Political dynamics often arise from within a political system, but can also be affected by outside forces. In order to understand the potential effects of these forces, we created a model to simulate political dynamics in a society under different internal and external conditions. The system dynamics model uses a cognitive modeling framework to determine human behavior. We present the results of the model under four different scenarios, including a base case, a case where an outside government provides support for the opposition, an information operations case, and a show of force case. The model shows that there is potential for these different conditions to have significant effects, including higher-order effects that may be unanticipated if a systems perspective is not taken.