Impacts of climate changes on water resources in Yellow River Basin, China

摘要

This study examined the impacts of future climate changes on water resources and extreme flows in Yellow River Basin (YRB), China, using the Coupled Land surface and Hydrology Model System (CLHMS) driven by the IPCC scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. First, the skill of 14 IPCC AR5 GCMS for simulating temporal and spatial temperature and precipitation in Yellow River Basin has been evaluated. Using the bias-corrected result of RCP storylines, the CLHMS model was developed to predict the 21 century climate and water cycle change. All the three simulation results indicate a reduction in water resources. The current situation of water shortage since 1980s will keep continue, the water resources reduction varies between 30 and 24% for RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios. RCP 8.5 scenario simulation shows a decrease of water resources in the early and mid 21th century, but after 2080, with the increase of rainfall, the extreme flood events tends to increase.