Development of future precipitation forecasting program using probability forecast and climate change scenario

摘要

Recently, it is estimated that Korea and other countries will face water shortage, and the water related industries and technologies will be increasingly important. So the cutting-edge IT technology and existing water management infrastructure have been combined to develop the concept of smart water grid, which is widely applied in Korea and overseas. To apply the smart water grid, it is important to calculate the available volume of water resources. It requires the future precipitation forecasting data analysis, and the precipitation forecast of Korea Meteorological Administration and climate change scenario data can be essential elements in calculating short-term and long-term available quantity of water resources. Korea Meteorological Administration is providing the precipitation data for the next 10 days through community and mid-term forecast while providing the precipitation for the next 3 months through the long-term forecast using past normal-year data. It is difficult to estimate the precipitation after 3 months so this research used the climate change scenario data. RCP8.5 scenario was used to provide the precipitation data of 1km*1km resolution, and especially it used the Kriging technique to interpolate and thus provide the missing grid, which was not provided by conventional RCP scenario, considering the latest administrative district. It used C language based visual studio2013 and the data including the climate change scenario was saved in an Oracle DB so that it can be used through a server of Incheon National University. The Oracle DB contains future RCP scenarios from 2015 to 2050, and a Windows based application was developed so that a user can extract the precipitation data by setting the time frame and location. The extracted result is saved as a text file format in order to facilitate the use.