SUSTAINABILITY RISK BASED ASSESSMENT OF THE INTEGRATED URBAN WATER SYSTEM: A CASE STUDY OF OSLO

摘要

Sustainability studies entail the consideration of a plethora of factors including climate change, water and energy scarcity, rising energy costs, population growth, etc. All these factors put pressure on the management of water services, increasing their vulnerability and the level of risk. A risk assessment methodology to be applied at a strategic (macro) level, using an integrated approach, is presented to support the evaluation of intervention strategies in an integrated urban water system (IUWS) for a set planning horizon. Risk criteria and method for estimating risk for different circumstances were defined using a formulation consenting strategic objectives to be considered. The IUWS is modelled by "WaterMet~2" which is a deterministic and quantitative IUWS simulation model, allowing quantification of the main water flows and other relevant fluxes in the IUWS. Risk assessment uses results from WaterMet~2 model to analyze risk in the IUWS. The developed approach is demonstrated through its application to the assessment of the intervention strategies for the water supply systems of Oslo city in Norway over a 30-year planning horizon.