Research on Mid-long Term Prediction Model of Aging Coefficient in Zhejiang Province

摘要

Firstly, based on the Fifth Census Data in 2000 and the Sample Survey Data in 2005, this paper predicts the exact time when aging population reaches a peak, and puts forward a proposition about the long-term trend of the aging population from its nature. Then we make Granger causality tests and Johnson co-integration tests with the household population of Zhejiang Province from 1978 to 2008. From the tests, we find out the main factors that influence total population and aging population. Finally qualitative and quantitative analysis are combined to establish the vector auto-regression models; we design four different programs about average life expectancy, population of provincial net intake and total fertility rate, then predict the total population and aging population from 2009 to 2050 dynamically. Along with that the developing trend of aging population is analyzed and some suggestions are proposed.