Based on Grey Markov Model Qualitative Analysis of Civil Aviation Incidents Prediction

摘要

Civil aviation incident is an important part of the civil aviation safety research. This paper collected from 2006 to 2009 of China's civil aviation incidents data, and integrated it into incident index, made use of GM (1,1) model in the coming years was predicted civil aviation incidents index. And then, the results of the forecast were amended by Markov transition matrix. The last, under the weather and the cause of the accident, machinery, machine three main factors of the development trends through two amendments to the civil aviation incidents index final prediction.