The Application of Combination Model in Forecasting the Total Number of Health Technical Staffs of Our Country

摘要

The total number of health technical staffs of our country was forecasted for projecting health resource and optimizing allocation by combination model, which is the incorporation of the model of Auto Regression Moving Average(ARMA) and Gray Model(GM) The total number of health technical staffs of our country in 2009 and 2010 are expected to be 5076994 and 5149852 respectively. The conclusion is: 1. It is feasible to use the Combination Model to forecast the needs of health manpower. 2. It is needed to change the structure of present health technical staffs. 3. Middle and high level staffs need to be increased.