Temperature Forecast Opportunities Across the NWS Southern Region

摘要

As the skill of the guidance from numerical weather prediction models continues to improve, the role ofNational Weather Service forecaster is evolving from primarily producing forecasts to interpreting the forecasts for its corepartners. Nevertheless, there remains a fraction of days for which the forecaster can add substantial value to the numericalguidance. The purpose of this study was to identify the number of Forecast Opportunities, days for which the maximum and/orminimum temperature guidance is in error by ten or more Fahrenheit degrees. We compared the forecast daily maximum andminimum temperatures from the extended Global Forecast System-based Model Output Statistics for 32 sites in the NWSSouthern Region to the observed temperatures for the period January 2007-May 2009. Forecast Opportunities typicallyoccurred as frequently as 15-20% of the time during the cold half of the year, but were much less frequent, or even absent, duringthe summer. Forecast Opportunities occurred most often for Days Three through Six, indicating forecasters should not focustheir efforts on the short-term only. For most sites, the number of Forecast Opportunities increased from 2007-2009; research todate did not yield a clear explanation for that increase.