A System Dynamics Model for Italian Energy Consumptions: an analysis of Policy related impacts on Energy Consumption and Emissions

摘要

This paper analyzes the Italian energy system using the system dynamics approach modeling. Consideringhistorical data a Business As Usual (BAU) configuration of Italian energy system has been developed: this isthe base case for all scenario analyses. The aim of the DIEM model is to analyze the effects of energyintervention and policies. DIEM model lets users to apply to BAU configuration both single measure andmultiple interventions and analyze “in real time” their effects on Italian energy system: energy demand,energy mix and greenhouse gases emissions. DIEM model simulates 20 interventions regarding: renewableenergy, efficiency and energy savings, CCS technology, waste energy recovery, nuclear power, changes ofbehavior and modifies in GDP growth.Four scenarios have been developed: grey scenario analyzes the effects of renewable energy and efficiencymeasures, yellow scenario considers also the effects of nuclear power investments, CCS technology andwaste energy recovery, green scenario also investigates the effects of social behavior changes. The lastscenario, named “New World scenario” considers all interventions and simulates a system in which GDPdoesn’t grow indefinitely. According to DIEM model Italy will be able to achieve the 2020 emissionsreduction target even under grey scenario interventions but it is necessary to exploit a great part ofrenewable energy source potential and invest in efficiency interventions. Behavioral and social changes alsohave a great potential in emissions reductions.