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U.S. GASOLINE DEMAND: A STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

机译:美国汽油需求:结构时间序列分析

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The aim of this research is to estimate a gasoline demand function for the U.S. This isachieved by applying the structural time series modelling technique over the period 1949-2005 but with a general specification that allows for both asymmetric price responses (fortechnical progress to impact endogenously) and an underlying gasoline demand trend (fortechnical progress and other factors to impact exogenously, but in a non-linear way). It isexpected therefore that price increases above previous historical levels result in a greaterresponse from consumers than a price increase below the previous maximum; which in turnwill result in a greater response (in absolute terms) than a price reduction. It is found that forU.S. per capita gasoline consumption the estimated income elasticity is 0.45, the estimatedprice-max elasticity is -0.20, the estimated price-recovery elasticity is -0.10, and the estimatedprice-cut elasticity is 0 (given it is insignificant). In addition, the estimated underlying energydemand trend for US gasoline demand is non-linear with periods when it is increasing andperiods when it is decreasing.
机译:这项研究的目的是估算美国的汽油需求函数。 通过应用1949-年期间的结构时间序列建模技术来实现 2005年,但其通用规范允许两种不对称的价格响应(对于 技术进步产生内在影响)和潜在的汽油需求趋势(对于 技术进步和其他因素(但以非线性方式)受到外部影响)。它是 因此,预期价格上涨超过先前的历史水平将导致更大的收益。 消费者的反应是价格涨幅低于之前的最高水平;反过来 与降价相比,从绝对意义上来说,这将带来更大的响应。发现对于 美国人均汽油消费量,估计收入弹性为0.45, 价格-最大弹性为-0.20,估计的价格回收弹性为-0.10,并且估计的 降价弹性为0(假设微不足道)。此外,估算的潜在能源 美国汽油需求的需求趋势与增长的时期呈非线性关系,并且 减少的时间段。

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