Oil demand forecasting for China: a fresh evidence from structural time series analysis

摘要

The main objective of this study is to investigate the linkages between oil price, oil reserve, economic growth and oil consumption to forecast future oil demand in China. A structural time series technique is used to expose the underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for total oil consumption and transport oil consumption over the period of 1980-2015. In both models, the elasticity of GDP and oil reserve remains positive and significant, while the elasticity of oil price shows negative and significant relationship with oil demand. Moreover, the results suggest that GDP, oil price, oil reserve and UEDT are found to be important drivers for oil demand. Furthermore, UEDT is found to be an increasing trend in total oil consumption as well as for transport oil consumption. It is also predicted that total oil demand will be 9.9 thousand barrels per day by 2025, while transport oil demand will be 9.0 thousand barrels per day by 2020 in China.