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A novel nonlinear RBF neural network ensemble model for financial time series forecasting

机译:金融时间序列预测的新型非线性RBF神经网络集成模型

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In this paper, a novel nonlinear Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF-NN) ensemble model based on ν-Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression is presented for financial time series forecasting. In the process of ensemble modeling, the first stage the initial data set is divided into different training sets by used Bagging and Boosting technology. In the second stage, these training sets are input to the different individual RBF-NN models, and then various single RBF-NN predictors are produced based on diversity principle. In the third stage, the Partial Least Square (PLS) technology is used to choosing the appropriate number of neural network ensemble members. In the final stage, ν-Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression is used for ensemble of the RBF-NN to prediction purpose. For testing purposes, this paper compare the new ensemble model''s performance with some existing neural network ensemble approaches in terms of two financial time series: S & P 500 and Nikkei 225. Experimental results reveal that the predictions using the proposed approach are consistently better than those obtained using the other methods presented in this study in terms of the same measurements. Those results show that the proposed nonlinear ensemble technique provides a promising alternative to financial time series prediction.
机译:本文提出了一种基于ν-支持向量机(SVM)回归的新型非线性径向基函数神经网络(RBF-NN)集成模型,用于金融时间序列预测。在集成建模过程中,第一阶段通过使用Bagging和Boosting技术将初始数据集划分为不同的训练集。在第二阶段,将这些训练集输入到不同的单个RBF-NN模型,然后根据分集原理生成各种单个RBF-NN预测变量。在第三阶段,使用偏最小二乘(PLS)技术选择适当数量的神经网络集成成员。在最后阶段,使用v-支持向量机(SVM)回归将RBF-NN集成到预测目的。出于测试目的,本文在两个财务时间序列(S&P 500和Nikkei 225)方面将新的集成模型的性能与一些现有的神经网络集成方法进行了比较。实验结果表明,使用所提出的方法进行的预测是一致的就相同的测量而言,比使用本研究中介绍的其他方法获得的结果更好。这些结果表明,所提出的非线性集成技术为金融时间序列预测提供了一种有希望的替代方法。

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