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A novel nonlinear RBF neural network ensemble model for financial time series forecasting

机译:一种新的非线性RBF神经网络集合模型,用于金融时间序列预测

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摘要

In this paper, a novel nonlinear Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF-NN) ensemble model based on ν-Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression is presented for financial time series forecasting. In the process of ensemble modeling, the first stage the initial data set is divided into different training sets by used Bagging and Boosting technology. In the second stage, these training sets are input to the different individual RBF-NN models, and then various single RBF-NN predictors are produced based on diversity principle. In the third stage, the Partial Least Square (PLS) technology is used to choosing the appropriate number of neural network ensemble members. In the final stage, ν-Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression is used for ensemble of the RBF-NN to prediction purpose. For testing purposes, this paper compare the new ensemble model's performance with some existing neural network ensemble approaches in terms of two financial time series: S & P 500 and Nikkei 225. Experimental results reveal that the predictions using the proposed approach are consistently better than those obtained using the other methods presented in this study in terms of the same measurements. Those results show that the proposed nonlinear ensemble technique provides a promising alternative to financial time series prediction.
机译:本文介绍了一种基于ν-支持向量机(SVM)回归的新型非线性径向基函数神经网络(RBF-NN)集合模型,用于金融时间序列预测。在集合建模过程中,第一阶段初始数据集被使用的装袋和升压技术分为不同的训练集。在第二阶段,这些训练集输入到不同的单独RBF-NN模型,然后基于分集原理产生各种单个RBF-NN预测器。在第三阶段,部分最小二乘(PLS)技术用于选择适当数量的神经网络集合构件。在最后阶段,ν-支持向量机(SVM)回归用于RBF-NN的集合预测目的。为了测试目的,本文将新的集合模型与一些现有的神经网络集合方法进行了两种金融时间序列:标准普尔500指数和日经225.实验结果表明,使用所提出的方法的预测始终如一在该研究中获得的其他方法在相同的测量方面获得。这些结果表明,该建议的非线性集合技术为金融时序序列预测提供了有希望的替代方案。

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