Impact of Climate Change and Economic Development on Water Scarcity in Haihe River Basin

摘要

In line with soaring social economic development and obvious climate change, Haihe River Basin has faced serious water scarcity gradually in the last 50 years. In this paper, we have simulated the impacts of these two factors on water scarcity in 2030, by a method of coupling an econometric model (CAPSiM) and a water resources model (PODIUM). The linkage of CAPSiM and PODIUM can be used to project water demand and supply driven by climate change, agricultural policy, crop prices, population change, urbanization and economic development. The social economic scenario assumes a continuation of current trends and existing plans in water and food policy, management and investment. The climate scenarios are A2, B2 and extreme weather. The results show as flowing: ①industry water demand will boost the total water use increasing quickly. By contrast, the available water increases slowly. The social economic development will make water scarcity more seriously in the Haihe River Basin. ②Comparing to climate change, the social economic development plays a major role in water scarcity in future. ③The integrated effects of climate change and social economic development, especially under extreme climate scenario, the rate of water scarcity will fluctuate in a great range. So, the uncertainty of climate and social economic development will make the water resource management more difficult.