Modeling risk factors dependence using Copula method for assessing software schedule risk

摘要

Based on risk factor method, a model for building dependence among risk factors is discussed for assessing schedule risk of software project. Three main risk factors which influence software schedule are described. Copula method is used to model the dependence among risk factor, and Monte Carlo method is adopted to simulate the schedule risk model. The empirical results from a Communication Corporation show that schedule risk of the new software project is overestimated without modeling the dependence among risk factors. Moreover, the model with considering risk factor dependence by Copula can assess the schedule risk accurately.