BIODIESEL IN BRAZIL: TODAY’S PANORAMBIODIESEL PANORAMA OF THE INDUSTRY AND FUTURE SCENARIOS VIA A FUZZY MODELING

摘要

The energetic challenge for the decades to come will be enormous. From an economical point of view and concerning the socio-environmental aspects, new energy sources tend to arise as viable alternatives to petroleum in a worldwide scale. Biodiesel is one of these sources and Brazil turns out to be one of the major players in this market. In the last decade many important steps were taken in promoting the expansion of the biodiesel`s share in the Brazilian energy matrix. However, the latest evolution of the industry points out to quite different results from those expected by the government. This paper intends to present a panorama of the actual situation of this industry in the country, highlighting the points where there is a great detachment between the propositions for the incentive of biodiesel and the reality of the current industrial establishment. A future-scenariobuilding exercise by means of a fuzzy modeling are proposed, based upon today’s configuration, and on other key variables for this industry, so as to better understand the potential still existing for the biodiesel production in Brazil.