BIODIESEL IN BRAZIL: TODAY’S PANORAMBIODIESEL PANORAMA OF THE INDUSTRY AND FUTURE SCENARIOS VIA A FUZZY MODELING

摘要

The energetic challenge for the decades to come will be enormous. From an economical point ofview and concerning the socio-environmental aspects, new energy sources tend to arise as viablealternatives to petroleum in a worldwide scale. Biodiesel is one of these sources and Brazil turnsout to be one of the major players in this market. In the last decade many important steps weretaken in promoting the expansion of the biodiesel`s share in the Brazilian energy matrix. However,the latest evolution of the industry points out to quite different results from those expected by thegovernment. This paper intends to present a panorama of the actual situation of this industry in thecountry, highlighting the points where there is a great detachment between the propositions for theincentive of biodiesel and the reality of the current industrial establishment. A future-scenariobuildingexercise by means of a fuzzy modeling are proposed, based upon today’s configuration,and on other key variables for this industry, so as to better understand the potential still existing forthe biodiesel production in Brazil.