A Study on the Interaction between Chinese Export Price and World Import Price of Tangerines

摘要

With the accelerating of economic globalization, the effect of foreign factors on Chinese citrus export is increasingly obvious, and it is mainly expressed on the export price fluctuation of Chinese citrus. This article uses SVAR, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, to analyze the interaction of Chinese citrus export prices with world citrus import prices from the year 1961 to 2007. Results indicate that: (1)there is a periodicity in fluctuation of the two prices; (2)fluctuation frequency of Chinese export price is higher and its fluctuation range is lower, while those of world import price are just the opposite; (3) changes in Chinese export price are mainly affected by product fluctuation, while world import price is not only affected by this factor but it is also influenced by Chinese export price; (4) fluctuation characteristics of two prices indicates that there are serious price distortions in world tangerine market; it is therefore recommended to revert to multilateral negotiations under WTO agreement to eliminate trade barriers in tangerine market and to improve world welfare.