Study on Potential Distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China by CLIMEX-Arcview

摘要

Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis, is one of the most important quarantine pests in the world, and causes serious loss to agricultural products in tropical and sub-tropical zone. In this study, biological software CLIMEX was employed to predict its potential distribution in China. The parameter values were selected based on the known information of B. dorsalis responding to the climate elements, and adjusted according to fly geographic distribution suggested by the EPPO. Southern China is suitable area for B. dorsalis to survive. The north boundary of suitable area locates between Yangtze River and Yellow River. Our results suggest the impacts of cold stress and dry stress could have particularly substantial impacts on establishment of the fly in China. Sensitivity analyses indicate DHCS and DTCS are two most important parameters on the potential distribution of the fly. As a result of climate change, the potential range for B. dorsalis is projected to extend further north as cold stress boundaries recede. There are often other factors such as soil type, topographical features, interactions between species (including humans) , and natural boundaries (i. e. deserts, oceans and mountain ranges) that determine where a species can survive. So these factors should be considered in order to make the prediction of the pest's potential distribution more accurate.