Computer simulations of soil erosion were used to determine if the projected climate for years 2041-2070 in central Oklahoma would substantially increase annual sediment yield from a field planted in winter wheat, and what additional agronomic and conservation practices may be necessary to counter the detrimental effects of climate change and to control soil erosion in the future to below the current annual sediment yield. The study found that annual sediment yield would double if current conventional tillage practices for winter wheat were in effect under climate change conditions in 2041-2070. The majority of the sediment yield occurred during the summer fallow season because the ground was bare and unprotected and soil erodibility was large due to multiple tillage operations. Conservation tillage and no-till practices were found to be, on average, effective at reducing future annual sediment yield values to levels at or below current average annual sediment yield values. Double cropping soybeans and winter wheat was found to be unpractical due to the high annual water demand of two crops. Also of concern is the high uncertainty of and inconsistencies among the GCM projected climates.
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