Military Conflict Decision Modeling Based on Fuzzy Hypergame

摘要

In real military conflicts, the army commander of each side should maximally utilize tactical cheat to produce a wrong impression to the opponent in order to realize his own objectives, so the options and the outcome preference order of the opposite side perceived by the commander is imperfect and uncertain. In this paper, the military conflict situation is modeled as a first-level hypergame with fuzzy linguistic preference perceptions. A fuzzy numbers ranking method is used to determine the crisp preference perception vectors. The process of hypergame stability analysis is given for obtaining the hypergame-preserving equilibrium or hypergame-destroying equilibrium. According to these hypergame equilibria, the most possible outcomes of military conflicts can be efficiently forecasted. A simulation example is provided to illustrate the method.