基于多主体影响图及博弈论的军事决策建模

摘要

Decision-making behaviors with circular dependence are common phenomena in many areas including military decision problem. To cope with this problem, a framework for analysis and modeling of this kind of decision problems is proposed based on multi-agent influence diagram (MAID) and games, explicitly describing the competitive situation of military decision-making, accurately identifying the circular dependence relationships among decision variables and profoundly encoding the potential structural information in military decision problem. With case study, it is shown that this framework which is a new method for analysis and modeling of military decision problems has more virtues compared to existing methods.%具有循环依赖性的决策行为在包括军事决策问题在内的许多领域普遍存在.在博弈论框架下,利用多主体影响图(multi-agent influence diagram,MAID)及其结构诱导的关联图,对具有循环依赖性的军事决策问题进行分析和建模,能够准确地描述具有对抗性的军事决策态势,精确地识别决策问题中的循环依赖关系,深刻地揭示军事决策问题的潜在结构信息.实例分析表明,基于多主体影响图及关联图的框架不仅为军事决策提供了新的分析和建模途径,而且同现有方法相比具有多方面的优势.