Confidence Interval for Space Debris Population Estimation Based on Radar Beam Fence

摘要

Estimating debris population is of great significance for assessing impact risk to spacecrafts, predicting the long-term growth potential and validating space debris models. A method of estimating the confidence interval for debris population using radar beam fence is proposed. The problem whether a debris object that may cross the beam fence, I.e. has large enough inclination and radar cross section, is actually detected is modeled as a (0-1) distribution. Using orbital altitudes measured, the average probability of crossing the beam fence is obtained. The confidence interval for debris population is estimated by the Central Limitation Theorem. Experimental results show the validity of the method.