A Methodology for Quantifying Risk Factors Impacting the Transportation of Nuclear Materials Utilizing a Geographic Information System

摘要

There are various risks associated with transporting nuclear materials.Some components of the risk triad(events,probabilities,and consequences)are associated with the material and the packaging.Other components of risk are impacted by the road/rail infrastructure itself,as well as with the nature of the area surrounding the transportation corridor.Decisions regarding the route for a particular shipment must be made with as complete a suite of information as possible.One way to organize information for decision-making is through the use of a geographic information system(GIS),where the spatial arrangement of conditions can be evaluated for specific infrastructure segments.One of the limitations of the current usage of GIS is that data are often displayed without a means to quantify the overall state of the condition and without any means of comparing alternatives.For any given segment of infrastructure,the magnitude,distance and direction of conditions that impact risk can vary.Examples of conditions that may impact risk are the amount of traffic on the roadway segment,the curves and elevation changes of the roadway,and the population in the vicinity of the roadway.A methodology is discussed that begins to aggregate condition information for route comparison and decision-making.