Research on the Risk Identification for the International Engineering Contracting EPC Projects

摘要

The International Engineering Contracting EPC projects have the characteristics of high risk, intense complexity and numbers of uncertainties. Thus, as the basis of the risk assessment, risk response and risk control, risk identification can achieve the goal of systematically, dynamically identify, classify, and analyze the risk, thereby contributing to risk aversion and reducing the risk of loss. In this paper, through the literature review and survey analysis, filter out the risks which has the larger-probability of occurrence, the higher-degree of harm and the weaker-management-capacity, establishing the list of risk factors of international project contracting EPC project. Subsequently, this paper suggests the use of interpretative structural modeling (ISM) to prepare a hierarchical structure as well as the interrelationships of these risks, exploring the mechanism of interaction between the risks with the steps as followed, establishing the adjacency matrix and reachability matrix according to the bivariate correlation between the risk factors to, and dividing into elements of level, so as to provide theoretical and practical instruction as well as to offer the EPC contractor additional evidence on the decision-making.