The establishment and analysis of time series model of per capita GDP in Yunnan, China

摘要

The inertia and the time lag exist in the most of economic time series. Through the analysis of such inertia, the internal laws in the time series could be studied and the economic development could be predicted. Based on the actual conditions of per capita GDP from 1978 to 2007 in Yunnan Province, China, ARMA model is used to establish the time series model of per capita GDP in Yunnan Province and to analyze its law. Compared to the real value and the predicted value of per capita GDP from 2003 to 2007 of Yunnan Province, it concludes that the relative error is small (the rate of average error is −1.04%) and the model could predict the per capita GDP very well. Therefore, this paper provides an excellent tool which is used to predict the economic development.