Modeling Global Policy for Managing Polioviruses:An Analytical Journey

摘要

The success of the Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring the world the benefits ofsustained improvements in quality of life (I.e., cases of paralysis and deaths avoided) and savedcosts from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining these benefits requires that policy makers manageboth the transition from the current massive use of oral polio vaccine (OPV) to a world withoutOPV and the risks of potential future reintroductions of polioviruses. In 2001, we began a casestudy on retrospective polio risk management to demonstrate the importance of using a dynamicdisease model to correctly estimate the cost-effectiveness of vaccines. Discussions with theCDC about the case study led to an opportunity for us to develop a large model to support theprospective decision making process. This paper tells the story of our journey, emphasizinginsights about the requirements for analysts to create tools that really help high-level decisionmakers.