MODELING THE IMPACT OF LOSS IN U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTIONRESULTING FROM SOY RUST DISEASE

摘要

Our objective is to examine the consequences of soy rust to the U.S. agriculture in the next 2-5years. In 2000, the U.S. harvested approximately 2.8 billion bushels of soybeans from almost 73million acres of cropland, accounting for more than 50 percent of the world's production. Thecrop generated $12.5 billion dollars, $6.66 billion in exports. Soy rust established itself in thesouth last November and is expected to disseminate and deposit in the crops during this year’splanting season. The extent of outbreaks depends upon climatic conditions. Early detection iscrucial since soy rust is deadly to the soy plant within 48 hours. Monitoring systems will warnfarmers of the presence of the spores and farmers are instructed on how to identify and treat it.There is uncertainty regarding the sufficient and timely availability of fungicide. In addition tohistorical data, we incorporate observations of on going planting and harvesting. Parameterranges in the model are narrowed as more information becomes available and existinguncertainties dissipate. The impact of soy rust is analyzed in aggregate, looking at overallproduction and market share contrasted against natural noise in the yields.