Previous research favorably compared Croston’s [4] forecasting method for demandusing simple exponential smoothing assuming a non-zero demand occurs as a Bernoulliprocess with constant probability. We study Croston’s method under violation of thisassumption. In a simulation, double exponential smoothing is compared to amodification of Croston’s under various conditions. Our methodology is applicable toforecasting intermittent demand at the beginning or end of a product’s life cycle.
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