Analysis of the Ability of Large-Scale Reanalysis Data to Define Siberian Fire Danger in Preparation for Future Fire Weather

摘要

Wildfire is the dominant natural disturbance in boreal regions, which acts as a catalyst for regulating successional processes, under the control of weather and climate. Large-scale reanalysis and ground-station interpolated meteorological data are used to estimate local- and regional-scale fire weather for a normal and an extreme fire year. Despite the difference in spatial scales, fire weather indices compare well spatially, temporally and quantitatively (1999 r~2=0.93; 2002 r~2=0.90; 2004 r~2=0.96). The daily data are one fire weather index category or less in 74% of the cases. Cumulative and daily fire weather indices also reveal a strong relationship with the daily and seasonal amount of area burned. The ability of large-scale weather data to estimate fire weather provides confidence in the relevance of large-scale data to be used to enhance fire weather prediction in remote regions where station data are sparse and also its potential use in estimating large-scale future fire danger.