FUZZY LOGIC APPROACH TO FORECAST ROJECTDURATION IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

摘要

Network-based techniques as planning tools are widely used in construction industry. Theyare usually carried out in an unstructured form with considerable reliance on the planner'sjudgment, imagination, and intuition. In addition, the competitive nature of constructionindustry has also contributed to the development of nontraditional decision-making tools.Thus, a more accurate method is necessary to obtain project duration in construction projects.The availability of computer technology (both hardware and software) allows fuzzy logic forthe prediction of accurate project duration. This paper describes a methodology to identifythe project duration by incorporating qualitative as well as quantitative factors of theconstruction industry. The qualitative factors are converted into numerical measures bygiving suitable membership values. This relies on advanced mathematical tools in addition toconstruction knowledge rules defined by planning experts to enhance and automate theplanning process of complex projects, where conventional model-based approach is verydifficult to implement. Furthermore, this methodology makes the experts' knowledge explicitand can be applied mechanically to other projects, mutatis and mutandis. A case study isworked out to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and this can beeasily computerized.