FuzzyMOS: A Fuzzy Logic System for Objective Aviation Forecasting

摘要

Verification statistics indicate Model Output Statistics (MOS) to be the bestobjective forecast tool for the aviation forecaster. FuzzyMOS is an objective forecast system that uses issue hour, forecast period, initial ceiling or visibility category, MOS, and verified MOS data as inputs to provide a categorical forecast output that is essentially a type of conditional and calibrated MOS forecast. This output is expressed as a decimal value and can then be converted to a specific ceiling height or visibility. Over 130,000 forecasts were used in this study, and test results indicate fuzzyMOS forecasts not only improved over MOS, but improved to a substantially greater degree than the official NWS forecasts.