The Sociopolitical Destabilization of Venezuela:A system dynamics perspective on the interaction of elite rhetoric,sociopolitical structure, and mass mobilization

摘要

This paper uses a system dynamics framework to analyze the rapidand dramatic transformation of Venezuela from an exemplar of prosperity anddemocratic stability in Latin America to a nation on the brink ofsocioeconomic and political collapse. In Venezuela, unaddressed grievancesof a large marginalized class, in combination with a loss of faith in thetraditional political system permitted the election of Hugo Chávez. Hisrhetoric and actions, leveraging the power of his position, accelerated thepolitical polarization and economic collapse of Venezuela. This dynamic maybe characterized in terms of positive feedback effects which overwhelmedtraditional restraints embodied in the institutions and political culture ofVenezuela. This paper uses system dynamics to explain why the rapiddisintegration of Venezuela was possible, suggests a range of possible futuresfor the troubled country, and derives implications for the region as a whole.