An approach for area and site-specific natural terrain hazard and risk assessment, Hong Kong

摘要

As development in Hong Kong progressively expands into natural terrain, there have been increasing concerns about the risks posed by natural terrain landslides. The aim of the Natural Terrain Hazard and Risk Area Study described in this paper was to evaluate whether Quantitative Risk Assessment QRA methods can be developed for the cost-effective management of risks posed by natural terrain hazards. The study examined the hazards of natural terrain landslides including rock and boulder falls, in two contrasting study areas. Hazard models were developed and the uncertainties documented and quantified where possible. These were combined with hypothetical population and vulnerability models to derive Individual and Societal Risk results for various development scenarios, which were then compared with the Interim Risk Guidelines for natural terrain landslides in Hong Kong. A number of important conclusions are made regarding the use of QRA techniques for evaluating natural terrain hazards and risk.