Supply and Demand of Molybdenum

摘要

Our prognosis is therefore that in spite of healthy demand for molybdenum, we expect greater surplus by 2003 as a result of by-product copper production. We could be wrong if our estimates of head grades and molybdenum circuit capacity are out of date but our figures are in line with production patterns at these mines going back to 1986. This growth in by-product production is now approaching the total production from the primary mines in North America. On the pattern of demand, one important point is that the pattern of molybdenum consumption is likely to change over the next 10 years as Chinese and "other world" stainless production increases. As the Chinese stainless industry grows and develops, and possibly West Australia and Russia embark on large stainless slab and HRC production projects, the patterns and trade of molybdenum may also change. This unlikely to occur within the next three years but in the longer term, these changes could well reduce the surplus in global markets. Therefore, we expect long-run prices of close to $3 per 1b for at least the next three years unless there is a reduction in supply in North America.