SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT AT BOTH URBAN AND REGIONAL SCALES IN THE FRENCH LESSER ANTILLES: METHODS AND RESULTS

摘要

Given the natural and anthropic context of the French Antilles, where vulnerable elements at risk are exposed to strong seismicity, the objective of the BRGM's "Seismic Risks in the Antilles" programmes is to assess and reduce seismic risk at urban and regional scales. This paper presents the approach adopted, which is consistent with the work of the French Association for Earthquake Engineering. It summarizes the results obtained and describes future prospects. The methods proposed to assess the seismic hazard and the value and vulnerability of the elements at risk are presented, from local-or community-scale indices through to expert or deterministic assessments. In order to structure the collected data, we require geographic databases of the hazards and of the elements at risk and their values and direct and indirect seismic vulnerabilities. Using simulation tools developed from methodological concepts, these data are then exploited at urban and regional scales to evaluate the consequences of earthquake scenarios in terms of damage, victims, malfunctions and financial losses. This process of seismic risk evaluation enables the pertinence of different risk reduction solutions to be assessed, notably in terms of regional planning and development.