A SUPPLY DEMAND MODEL FOR EXPLORATION OF THE FUTURE OF THE DUTCH GAS SECTOR

摘要

Import dependency and the extent of renewable gas production are two outcomes of interest concerning the future of gas supply in the Netherlands. Due to the complexity of internal mechanisms and uncertainties associated with the natural gas production, the production of renewable gases, and the demand for gas, the future of these two outcomes of interest cannot simply be projected. In this study, a system dynamics model is built to investigate the dynamics of import dependency and the renewable gas production, and an uncertainty analysis is conducted by using this model to explore the possible futures of these two outcomes of interest in numerous scenarios. The results show that import dependency is above 80% in 2060 in the majority of the scenarios, but there are few favourable cases in which it is below 20%. The ratio of renewable gas to the total consumption is not expected to exceed 10% in short term and to remain around this value although there are cases in which it reaches 40%. In future studies, the import mechanism of the model can be extended, different behavior patterns observed in the scenarios can be identified and analysed, and the results can be used for policy recommendations.