SYSTEM DYNAMICS PRACTICE IN A NON-IDEAL WORLD MODELLING DEFENCE PREPAREDNESS

摘要

In an ideal setting the conduct of a strategic intervention using systems thinking and systemdynamics modelling might start where the client identifies he has a complex, dynamic problem,and seeks the services of a consulting team. The team then goes through a logical, progressiveseries of interviews with stakeholders, workshops, group model building exercises leading topresentations to senior executives outlining strategic alternatives. Whilst much of the literaturesuggests this is how it should happen, in practice it can be quite different.This paper describes how, in response to a government audit, a major system dynamics projectwas initiated by the Australian Defence Organisation. A scoping study was commissionedwhich recommended ‘textbook’ practice. The Defence Department, however, launchedstraight into quantitative modelling. Problems understanding of the problem and ultimatepurpose of the modelling soon surfaced. In parallel, and somewhat fortuitous, a doctoralresearch project focusing on the same problem was conducted into qualitative dimensions ofthe problem specification.The paper discusses the evolution of the project and the significant learning that took place asa result of the interplay of qualitative and quantitative modelling activities. It also highlightsthe fact that the outcomes were less than hoped for, principally because of project managementfailure from the outset. Lessons for system dynamics modellers are identified.Keywords: System dynamics; systems thinking; cognitive mapping; defence preparedness.