Stchastic Failure Analysis and Economic Risk Evaluation for Outage Interval Optimization

摘要

TurboX (TURBine Outage eXtension) isan EPRI sponsored, model-based, decision analysis tool for utilities which combines probabilistic engineering and economic risk assessment for optimum outage planning and machine overhaul extension. The second level of the three-level program focuses on utilizing specific stochastic analyses on performance degradation or remaining life of power-plant components. TurboX has several categories for engineering analysis including, but not limited to, the generator, rotor, stationary sections, and turbine performance as a whole. Though each module has specific evaluation techniques, this paper will focus on the Low-Pressure Components module to reveal a flavor for the stochastic methodology, technical heuristics, and user interfaces of TurboX. The failure probabilities calculated in these modules is combined with component economic information, forced-outage consequential cost, safety and budget limits, etc. to provide Net Present Value (NPV) projections of the unit into the future. By observing the projected NPV curves, informed engineering and economic decisions might be made regarding the optimal time to overhaul a unit.