System Dynamics as a methodology for sustainable coastal-zone management

摘要

The method discussed here shows how the behavior of fishermen can be incorporated in a quantitative system model. Other types of fisheries management can be analyzed as well by changing the model parameters. For example, an open-access policy is simulated by omitting the sanction and setting the rule-breaking fraction equal to one. The next step is to include the socio-cultural factors in the model which may be relevant in a policy analysis context, such as local leadership and traditional resource-management institutions. This requires the translation into mathematical terms of the corresponding anthropologic concepts. If necessary, a game-theoretic approach could be followed to predict the consequences of social organization and the choices made at the individual level for the effectiveness of fishing regulations.