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Laplace's Method Approximations for Probabilistic Inference in Belief Networks with Continuous Variables

机译:具有连续变量的信念网络中概率推断的拉普拉斯方法逼近

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Laplace's method, a family of asymptotic methods used to approximate integrals, is presented as a potential candidate for the tool box of techniques used for knowledge acquisition and probabilistic inference in belief networks with continuous variables. This technique approximates posterior moments and marginal posterior distributions with reasonable accuracy [errors are O(n~(-2)) for posterior means] in many interesting cases. The method also seems promising for computing approximations for Bayes factors for use in the context of model selection, model uncertainty and mixtures of pdfs. The limitations, regularity conditions and computational difficulties for the implementation of Laplace's method are comparable to those associated with the methods of maximum likelihood and posterior mode analysis.
机译:拉普拉斯(Laplace)方法是用于逼近积分的一系列渐近方法,被认为是具有连续变量的信念网络中用于知识获取和概率推理的技术工具箱的潜在候选者。在许多有趣的情况下,该技术可以合理的精度近似后矩和边际后验分布(对于后验均值,误差为O(n〜(-2)))。该方法似乎也有望用于计算贝叶斯因子的近似值,以用于模型选择,模型不确定性和pdf混合的情况。拉普拉斯方法实施的局限性,规则性条件和计算难度可与最大似然法和后验模式分析法相关联。

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