Automatic tracing and forecasting of moving traffic jams using predictable features of congested traffic flow

摘要

The results of investigations of a recent model (Kerner, et al., 1997) for the automatic tracing of moving traffic jams and of the prediction of the jam propagation and time-dependent vehicle trip times are presented. It is found that the model which perofrms without any validation of the parameters of a model under different infrastructures of a highway, weather, etc. and which is based on the previous findings that moving traffic jams possess some characteristic parameters (i.e., the parameters of moving jams are unique, reproducible and predictable) can be applied for a reliable traffic forecasting on a highway.