e-HighWay2050: A Modular Development Plan on Pan-European Electricity Highways System for 2050

摘要

Traditionally, expansion of transmission networks has been ruled by the functional needs of transporting electrical energy from main generation centres to consumptions centres. Interconnections between national transmission networks have been used mainly to ensure security of supply and provide mutual support. However, the development of a single European electricity market and the expansion of renewable generation, driven by CO_2 emission reduction targets, emphasize the need for a Pan-European transmission network. In response to the call ENERGY.2012.7.2.1 of the European Commission, the project e-Highway2050 was launched by ENTSO-E in September 2012. The project aims at delivering a topdown methodology to support the planning of a Pan-European Electricity Highways System (EHS), capable of meeting European needs for electricity transmission between 2020 and 2050. During the first months of e-Highway2050 a comprehensive set of Boundary Conditions are established to inform all participants of the opportunities and limitations that will move an electricity system based on today's solution to the next integrated power system with CO_2 reduction emissions. The definition of Boundary Conditions starts with a bottom-up description of uncontrollable Uncertainties which are important for the development of EHS but which the decision maker(s) cannot control, and Options which can be chosen by the decision maker(s). The quantitative Uncertainties and Options are specified in numerical values (min, max, average) as far as possible. Then subsequent work will improve the numerical specification/limitation of the suggested Options, and may also add, modify or remove some Options, depending on the scenarios finally retained. Any combination of Uncertainties will create the boundaries for a possible Future (or Storyline) in which the EHS will be implemented, while a combination of one or more Options will be a possible Strategy on how to implement EHS. In the following scenario analysis, different scenarios for EHS will be established by choosing an appropriate set of Strategies, and then testing those under different Futures. Typically, a robust Strategy is found when it performs satisfactory under many (all) possible Futures.